Oh snap! That’s what Snap (NYSE:SNAP) shareholders were saying yesterday when the stock plunged 25% in a single day after the company reported disappointing third-quarter numbers.
Actually, it wasn’t just Snap shareholders saying that. It was shareholders of all tech and digital advertising stocks. Facebook (NASDAQ:FB). Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL, NASDAQ:GOOG). Twitter (NYSE:TWTR). Pinterest (NYSE:PINS). Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT).
They all got crushed yesterday!
Why? Because Snap’s disappointing quarterly numbers were a byproduct of macro headwinds that are likely impacting all digital advertising companies right now.
Here’s the story:
Data privacy has been a hot topic for several years. During this time, Apple has consistently tried to paint itself as a protector of data privacy. So, the company has implemented several changes to its privacy policies in order to better protect user data from being exploited by digital advertisers (who monetize that data).
One of the biggest changes came earlier this year, when Apple swapped out its long-time standard mobile app privacy policy – IDFA – with a new standard that, among other things, forces consumers to opt-in to be tracked by mobile apps.
Some consumers are opting in to be tracked. Others are not. For those who aren’t, the ability of mobile apps to effectively advertise to them has been compromised, because mobile apps like Facebook, Snap, and Twitter have, over the course of several years, carefully designed super-meticulous ad capabilities built on top of IDFA data.
With that data gone, the efficacy of their ad targeting has dropped – and consequently, the efficacy of their ads has dropped.
Snap is seeing this happen. And what Snap management said on Thursday that scared everyone in the industry is that, in response to lower efficacy on these ads, some advertisers are pulling back spend on Snap.
Now… you have to remember… Snap has forever been one of the fastest growing digital advertisers out there. So, if it’s struggling to grow because of these changes, then it’s very likely that so, too, is everyone else in the space.
And that’s why digital ad stocks plummeted yesterday.
However, we view this dip in all tech stocks as a long-term buying opportunity, and believe that from current levels, Snap stock could soar by more than 400%.
Really, it’s a no-brainer.
The reality is that ad dollars chase eyeballs, and eyeballs aren’t leaving mobile apps. In fact, Snap actually reported better-than-expected usage numbers in Q3. More people than ever are flocking to mobile apps.
So, the critical component to attract ad dollars – engagement – is at an all-time high.
The only problem, then, is a minor drop in ad efficacy, and only on opt-out iOS ads (Android ads and opt-in iOS ads are performing great, according to Snap management). Therefore, everything here comes down to a “data gap” that Apple has left in the market with its new privacy policy.
The mobile app industry will build – and, indeed, is already building – first-party solutions to fill this data gap. These solutions will take a few months to scale and test, during which mobile app advertising momentum may wane.
However, they will eventually work, and ultimately, advertisers are going to keep spending a lot of money in the mobile app universe, because that’s where all the engagement is these days and will remain for the foreseeable future.
Therefore, we do not see this as a structural or fundamental issue impacting mobile app advertisers.
It’s a transitory issue – and transitory issues are always great buying opportunities.
Our long-term financial model on Snap says the stock has the potential to rise above $300 in the long run. This is a sub-$60 stock today. The upside potential is enormous.
And it’s even bigger in other digital advertising stocks.
That’s why, in our flagship investment research product Innovation Investor, we’re buying the dip in our favorite digital ad stocks.
And, if you subscribe to Innovation Investor, we will tell you exactly when and what to buy on dips like this.
Snap is one of our top digital ad stocks, but it’s only one of a handful of opportunities with triple-digit upside potential.
As the old saying goes, timing is everything. That’s especially true in markets. And right now, the timing is perfect to buy digital ad stocks – and all tech stocks for that matter.
So what are you waiting for? Get access to the names of the digital ad stocks we’re buying right now.
On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.